There has been a lot of press lately on Indiana Republican Governor Mitch Daniels as a possible candidate in the 2012 Presidential race. What I personally like about the guy is that he shows the a conservative can do more than give red meat speeches, they can actually govern. What interests me most is his novel solution to health care. Called the Healthy Indiana Plan, it uses Health Care Savings accounts plus catastrophic insurance to give people access to health insurance.

Will he run? Don’t know. He might be too nice to run for President. But it would be nice to have a conservative wonk spouting out ideas on how to govern for a change.

No other ethnic political apparatus in this country is so firmly in the pocket of one party as African-Americans and the Democratic Party. Â For decades, Democrats have pandered to African-Americans at election time, then forgot their promises a day later. Â And yet, we keep coming back, waiting for more empty promises. Read more »

The use of coded language in politics is always frustrating. “Judicial Activism” is one of those terms popularized over the past generation to allow politicians to complain about Roe v. Wade without using the word “abortion.” Like the innocuous phrase “States Rights,” co-opted by segregationists to protect Jim Crow regimes in the South; it attempts to line up support for a broad, popular, technical principle crafted to produce a specific, less-popular, political outcome. Read more »

Some conservatives have proposed a Ten Commandments-style litmus test for those wanting to be 2010 candidates under the Republican banner.

Why? Why not! Read more »

There has been arguments put forth by some and many in fact generally believe that the center of the nation is just a wishy washy in-between that merely wishes to either compromise or jump from one side to another. I do not believe it is either of those assessments, and I think the general view of the center being as such is a loss to whichever party that takes this point of view. Unfortunately, today it seems as if the party that does not understand this is, in general, the republican party.

The center is generally where the nation is at, and many democratic party members as well as strategists understand this quite well considering it’s how they were able to build a party majority. I think a major conception in that the center is wishy washy is not due to the center’s fickle nature, but due to the inability for either party at times to be able to adhere to the interests of the middle of America. In the recent elections for New Jersey and Virginia republicans with a generally conservative background ran, yet they did not run as conservatives with social issues and an anti-government message. Instead they ran towards the center, far from the vitriol of the Teabaggers and the birchers and birthers. They ran from Limbaugh and Coulter, and towards the idea of actually being able to do what their democratic opponents were having trouble with-basic governance. The majority of Americans don’t care about ideology and which founding father best represents the way to run government. Their principle in a candidate is simple, find someone who can actually govern in a balanced way. Now it is true that some areas are naturally more conservative or liberal in their views of government and that many attempt to put themselves in a “liberal or conservative” label mindset, but the reality is obvious with the northeastern elections.

The people want a general governance ability with stable economic growth and a government that provides balance between having a market with enough freedom to continue to provide growth and innovation while ensuring basic regulations to ensure that the growth is sustainable and stable. These are not possible on the extremes of either side, and when the party in power begins to start move back towards these poles, the ideology of the few versus what most of the general populace wants starts to show in lack of competence. The republican campaign managers of both Cristie in New Jersey and McDonnell in Virginia understood this importance and ensured that their campaigns reflected this reality and downplayed their divisive ideology. The middle of America seems to be wishy washy, but in reality the actual fickle behavior comes from the parties themselves and the struggles between those who want ideology over practical governance. When the party decides to go far-right or far-left, the center has not shifted from it’s basic principle but instead seeks the candidate and/or party that is willing to put aside ideology and embrace basic common sense centrist governance.

The Conservative Party that is based in sheer right-wing ideology was a perfect example in NY23. The voters didn’t want someone who adheres to a conservative ideology that is anti-government and as a result anti-governance and it showed with the Teabaggers losing this center-right district that had been in Republican hands for a long time to the democrats. Thus the center stands firm but the parties, due to their support bases emanating from the extremes, do not. It is true that there once was a time when the center’s firm stand was found in both parties, but today’s world is one where the democratic party is the only one with enough thinkers to realize how necessary it is to head towards the center with the republican party filled with those who seek to turn the party into what it was not meant to be, an ideological conservative party. What we need are more of these kinds of people willing to put the ideologues in their place and let them realize that this is the Republican Party, not the Conservative Party.

The elections not too long ago showed the direction of where a Republican Renaissance could take life, and under what circumstances. It may take a few more elections with Teabaggers losing the elections and the few centrist republicans who can actually survive the primaries being the only ones to win major elections, if party leaders who realize that original and basic republican principles rather than some extreme conservative political ideology are needed to win back the nation’s trust. Once we return to our common sense past of fiscal discipline and government competence and not be ashamed of not being part of the anti-government crowd can we once again win the congress and presidency. Once we reject voodoo economics of over bloated government on the far-left but irresponsible and ineffective debt inducing tax cuts on the far-right; radical views that seek to bring imbalance to the delicate government/market fusion and realize that the people don’t want extremism in their choice, but will choose the one who best fits that sense of practical, pragmatic governing competence with steady and stable economic growth and fiscal discipline. Sounds like something we Republicans used to be good at before we became an ideologically right-wing party. It took the democrats a long time to realize that they will not win as an ideologically pure party, and it may take some time in the wilderness for the GOP to realize this as well.

Walter Shapiro notes how Sarah Palin could very well become the GOP nominee in 2012.

Want a third party? Lots of talk making the rounds about forming a third party.

You may even see some news stories saying half of all Americans want a 3rd political party. See page 13 of a recent NBC/WSJ poll that says 46% want a 3rd party (1).

Wanting is different that WANTING. It is no small task to start a third political party. The odds are also stacked against you being successful because you actually have to win elections or receive a huge number of votes before you become a full participant in the political process. Example: Ross Perot was able to participate in the 1992 presidential debates but was disqualified in 1996’s debates due to many factors that place special challenges in the path of third party success (2).

This question about wanting a third party has historically gotten a 45-51% support response. And “strongly” wants has always averaged 30%.

My Prediction

Republicans will run alternative candidates on as many “existing” third party tickets as possible in 2010, mostly against moderate Republicans. End result: Either a split vote leaving moderate Republicans losers or just the threat of a third party run scares off moderate Republicans that don’t have a firm storyline about what they believe and a strong relationship with their constituents. Third party end runs will only work in the South and the eastern seaboard.

Sources:

1 - http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/091027_NBCPoll.pdf

2 – In Ross Perot’s case, despite having got 18% of the presidential election vote in 1992, America’s Commission on Presidential Debates placed many hurdles in his path in 1996:Â he needed ballot status in all 50 states, his standing in the polls needed to reach a certain percentage, attendance levels at his rallies indicating he was a viable candidate with real supporters, a consideration of the likelihood that he will ever be president, and the opinions of a host of pundits on the value of his presence on the political scene (if he is just a spoiler then inclusion would be free publicity for a non-serious candidate).

Undoubtedly this raises good questions on his ability to actually represent the district he’s running for. Shouldn’t he know something about them?

Hoffman silent on local issues

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 25, 2009

Douglas L. Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate for the 23rd Congressional District seat, offered no position on a few key local issues during a Thursday meeting with the Watertown Daily Times editorial board.

If the Republican Party had just 25 more Ron Pauls we would be a saner, better party … it would actually be a political party of ideas and debate.

Back during ther summer, there was talk of “civil war” within the party. That was especially a favorite term of some ultra-conservatives like Governor Rick Perry in Texas.

Then these “civil war” Republicans got invited to TEA parties and all sorts of things so that they could strut their revolutionary stuff. Most of them ran for the hills. They didn’t really want a civil war. They just wanted the other parts of the party to sit down and to shut up — or better yet, to just leave.

However, Republicans have morphed a lot from the summer of 2009 and their reactionarism (June/July) to then being revolutionary (August/September) and are now balkanized (Oct).

Problem #1: National Republican leadership is almost non-existent. We have the equivalent of the Siegfried Line as national party strategy in which we are incapable of effective counterattack. We are locked behind our own lines. Our defense IS our attack as we have fortified our battlelines behind a nearly monolithic party line vote in Congress.

Problem #2: The Democrats don’t care about our strategy. They do not need to breech our lines to win the war. As for probing for weaknesses in the line we are doing that already for the Democrats.

Almost weekly 2 or 3 Republicans are pilloried as RINOs — and to what end? It weakens the wall further as the opponent on the other side is much less dreaded than the self-appointed commissars of political purity that are running amuck in their effort to cleanse the party and to prepare for the Gottdammerung battles of 2010 and 2012.

Problem #3: There are those within our ranks that are preparing for their own defection. They are setting up the scenarios that will let them slide out through the flanks and justify their own survival by reinventing themselves. Internal balkanization will surely follow the cliques that have formed.

Problem #4: Denial remains rampant as to how the Republican Party got to where it is today. This is where Ron Paul comes into the picture.

While I do not agree with everything proposed by Ron Paul, he is undoubtedly one of the very few truthsayers in the Republican Party today. I trust Ron Paul a lot more than I do the national Republican leadership.

Ron Paul has never been a go-along, get-along Republican. More important is that Ron Paul has principles. (They all say they do — but constant voting along party lines negates the existence of having principles).

Unlike some of our party leadership that will defend their principles when forced to, or when it seems politically a way to reinforce the ol’Siegfried, Ron Paul has taken very strong and specific stands on issues of national importance. He has largely lived his principles … and not just when it is politicaly convenient to do so.

The Future & Two Predictions

Republicans are hoping to hold their Siegfried Line until 2010 when they expect (are praying for) a huge groundswell of disappointment with the Obama Administration will cause them to make gains in Congress. History says that this is possible. However, some data that I am looking at says that the trends of history may fail us this time around, because we have learned the lessons of history: if you repeatedly get run over then maybe YOU have a problem. Stop blaming the other guy.

In preparation for 2010 some ultra-conservative Republicans are toying with the idea of a third party.

This third party idea is playing out right now in the battle for New York’s 23rd Congressional District. The local Republican Party picked a candidate that they thought would do well in battle against whomever the Democrats put up. The 23rd has traditionally voted Republican but is now only one of three congressional districts in New York with a Republican representative. In the last election the district went madly Democratic. Reality on the ground is that the New York Republican leadership looked for someone that appealed to New Yorkers, someone along the lines of Dede Scozzafava, a fiscally responsibile yet social liberal Republican … and that’s when the fight started.

Doug Hoffman, who remains a registered Republican and is not even a resident of District 23 (he lives in the 20th District, but this doesn’t matter in New York) choose to run under the flag of the New York Conservative Party. The battle has been ferocious.

New York Republicans are generally lining up behind Scozzafava and even Newt Gingrich has endorsed and campaigned for Scozzafava.

Yet, the battle of the 23rd District was joined on October 22nd by Sarah Palin reinforcing the candidacy of Doug Hoffman. So now we have a state-level party that is on its last legs in an attempt to remain players by electing Republicans and then a balkanized civil war breaks out.

This is all good stuff for the Democrats who may well now claim the 23rd District for the first time since 1993.

Sarah Palin said back in July 2009 that she planned to support candidates in elections based upon their beliefs and not on their party label. Kudos to Palin for having said and then doing what she said. The question really is whether this balkanization strategy is really just a prelude to her setting the stage for a 2012 independent run. (I can see Sarah Palin also as the Republican nominee, but only if about half the Republican Party becomes Democrats, and independent voters aren’t needed to win).

PREDICTION #1:
The economy will stablize during 2010, the Obama Administration will finally seem to get its act together and the Democrats will do well enough in the 2010 elections that they maintain or even gain slightly in Congress. 2010 will finish with the Democrats maintaining the ability to push through whatever bills they wish. (Lucky for us foodfights are common among Democrats so only half of what they would like to do has a chance.)

We Republicans will remain somewhat grumpily but comfortably behind the supposed safety of our Siegfried Line stewing in our own sauerkraut as we try to figure out what to do next for 2012.

PREDICTION #2:
2011 will be a very hurtful year for the American economy. We have staggering amounts of foreign debt that will be due. Tax receipts will have fallen and government services will be on the chopping block, unless we raise the national debt limit (No. No. No. Please, no!). 2010 will have proven to be a jobless recovery although we will have adjusted enough in our spending habits and lifestyle to make do. The U.S. dollar will finally fall from grace as the international reserve currency and that will unleash hell upon us.

So what about Ron Paul?

With exception of the few remaining New England Republicans, the thoughtful attempts by Lindsey Graham and John McCain to find some middle path and to create a national conversation, there is largely only Ron Paul actually talking about issues without following the lowest denominator approach of say nothing, take no risks that is the Boehner-McConnell party line.

Ron Paul is important because his libertarian approach provides principles upon which many in the party should look to if we are to be a real party. We must challenge our leadership. We must refuse the vote the party line just because it is a thorn in the Democrats side as we are trying to buy time.

The forces of Gottdammerung approach and we will only be a successful party once we can openly discuss and openly disagree and openly challenge the orthodoxy of whatever we were/mostly still are.

Some conservation is happening but only as the forces of balkanization now attempt to write George Bush off as a “Deformed Conservative”. Those who enabled him are also “deformed conservatives” per a recent American Conservative magazine article.

Umm, has anyone noticed that all of those “deformed conservatives” are largely still in power, except for Bush and Cheney? It would be nice to expand the conversation a bit beyond just whom we wish to blame our defeats upon. A constant state of denial should not be a worthy political principle to aspire to.

We need more Ron Pauls because his embrace of libertarian principles makes it possible for the Republican Party to once again become a party of debate and ideas. Ron Paul has repeatedly spoken loudly if only through the votes that he has cast while in Congress.

Ron Paul and similar minds are the last great hope for the Republican Party because we desperately need an ethos of open minds, forceful disagreement, and principled discussions. Just 25 such Republicans would make all the difference between now and the great fracturing of a balkanized Republican Party in the 2010 and 2012 elections.

And to my “moderate” friends

And for moderates — you need to find some principles quick. Being “moderate” or “centrist” is a mode. If you keep standing in the middle of the road whining that no one is stopping to give you a kiss … then you are just going to get your arse run over. Become a liberal, libertarian or conservative or whatever, but get some principles and go with it. Defend them. Live them. Be “moderate” when it comes to time to work out agreement but please stop standing in the middle of the road.

Best regards,
Bill4DogCatcher.com

If your Congressman or Senator tells you that they plan to look at all the facts before voting then … it could happen. Maybe.

If they tell you that they are an independent thinker and that they will make up their own mind — well, again, it could happen although not likely.

There is a huge, overwhelming probability that they will vote the party line.

How often do legislators vote the party line? Read more »

I am researching the probability that American conservatives will abandon the Republican Party and form a third party to run in 2012.

Also interested in whether Democratic Blue Dogs and other currently existing third parties, such as the Constitution Party, will join or collaborate with a new party comprised primarily of an exodus from the Republican Party.

Will publish a series of essays to appear on a variety of political websites beginning November 2nd, 2009.

Below are the progression of my survey topics:

• Conservative Future 1/5 – Political Divorce and Third Party in 2012?
• Conservative Future 2/5 – Conservative Third Parties in USA
• Conservative Future 3/5 – Giants and Personalities Capable of Uniting Conservatopia
• Conservative Future 4/5 – Can Conservatives and the Right Wing Play Nice Together?
• Conservative Future 5/5 – Conservatives and the GOP – Divorce or Collaboration: 2012?

Am seeking various sources of information with hard information on personalities, issues, point/counterpoint, prior research, polls, conspiracy theories and rumor plus your opinion.

You are welcome to send me your thoughts — and sources — via Facebook or via email: WGolden@IntelligenceCareers.com

Many conservatives and conservative elements of the Republican Party have been a voice of anger since the 2008 election loss to Obama and the Democrats.

Yet something has changed just over the last month (September 2009) in the tone of some conservative and Republican leaders.

Republicans across the spectrum are not yet holding hands. Some conservatives, whether or not they claim to back any political party, seem to be pausing for reflection.

There is some sense emerging among conservatives that they need a different path. Conservatives are a very independent bunch that can fall into many different belief categories, nonetheless there is a new tone present that is beginning to appear across the spectrum of conservative shareholders.

Only hints are emerging at this point as to why the change in tone. However, I would attribute this new attitude to four factors.

• September’s TEA Party – while the TEA Parties were certainly successful in providing a platform for many different views to emerge, the rally in Washington DC was both anti-climatic and troubling for a good number of TEA Party supporters. The MensDailyNews ran an article entitled “Tea Party March Hijacked at the Podium” (3) and noted the September 13th event in Washington DC as “An epic political event; of, by, but as it turned out not so much for The People.” Republican speakers came in for blistering critique for trying to turn the event into a 2010 get-out-the-vote commercial.
• Townhall Backlash – President Obama and the Democrats, as well as many Republicans, took immense grief from the public over the summer wanting to know where they stood on various issues. Yet by summer’s end President Obama’s popularity was actually rising with a key group of Americans: Caucasian voters earning more than $75,000/year. While townhall speakers looked to survive the summer, Democratic and liberal strategists saw the potential for a backlash (4) against an audience that many Americans would come to view as angry conservatives, and largely angry Republicans. By summer’s end support for President Obama and his brand of health care had stabilized and support rose enough to keep both him and health care above the 50% support mark in the polls.
• Resurgence of Centrist and Moderate Republicans – A significant number of conservatives throughout the spring and summer of 2009 called for purging of non-conservative Republicans from the party. By September talk of purges changed as some conservatives were now calling to “… take the necessary steps to expel from their midst the rabble that believe in nutty conspiracies” and to “… cast off those intellectual dead weights who stir up irrational fear.” Centrists and moderate Republicans had meanwhile become energized, with a fair number of new blogs appearing and candidates such as Florida’s Crist and Texas’ Kay Bailey Hutchison stepping into the fray, and John McCain quietly building a 2010 roster of Republican candidates to run in 2010 races across the USA.
• Obama’s Popularity Rising – perhaps the biggest challenge for conservatives is that President Obama seems to have withstood just about every political name and smear imaginable and yet his own personal popularity is back on the rise. Independents, so important to both major political parties, gave a huge boost of support to Obama in early October with Obama’s job approval rising 9 points and the percentage of independents who said they disapproved dropping 16 points. Even House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s favorable numbers went up 7 points since August 2009 (6).

Conservative Tone Change

W. James Antle III, an associate editor of The American Spectator, writing in the upcoming November edition of The American Conservative (1) notes:

“The country desperately needs a conservatism that is more intellectually sober and a Republican Party that engages with the country’s most pressing problems rather than reliving its Reagan-era glories.” Antle deems Bush and McCain Republicans as Reform Republicans and warns strongly that these reformists “are the very last pundits Republicans should heed.” No marshmellows and kumbayaa songs around this campfire yet, but there is an important action call there to rethink conservative tactics.

Another view from an outspoken conservative, Reihan Salam, New America Foundation (2):

“Right now, the GOP needs to show that it stands for something specific – it needs a new “contract” that specifically spells out what it is for rather than what it is against (e.g. any change). From some, you’d think that the only thing that will save the country from its dissolution will be the utter failure of the president’s every decision. That may be good enough for 25% of the country but I don’t see how that’s a path that will gain support from a solid majority of Americans.”

Louisiana’s rising conservative star and governor Bobby Jindal wrote in an Op-Ed piece in this week’s Washington Post (7):

“Republicans have to join the battle of ideas…. Republicans must shift gears. Conservatives should seize the mantle of reform and lead. Conservatives either genuinely believe that conservative principles will work to solve real-world problems such as health care or they don’t.”

Best regards,
Bill4DogCatcher.com

Sources:
1 – W. James Antle III, Deformed Conservatism, The American Conservative, November 2009 edition: http://www.amconmag.com/article/2009/nov/01/00018/

2 – Reihan Salam, Surviving Obama. A free-wheeling conversation about the Republican future, Washington Post, October 7, 2009: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2009/10/05/DI2009100502509.html

3 – Roger F. Gay, Tea Party March Hijacked at the Podium, MensNewsDaily.com: http://mensnewsdaily.com/2009/09/13/tea-party-march-hijacked-at-the-podium/

4 – Rachel Weiner, Dems See Backlash In Town Hall Protests, The Huffington Post: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/08/05/dems-see-backlash-in-town_n_252181.html

5 – Beth Fouhy, Obama’s Job Approval Rises in AP Poll, AP, October 7, 2009:
http://news.aol.com/article/president-barack-obamas-job-approval/581625

6 – Rasmussen Poll, 57% View Pelosi Unfavorably, But That’s An Improvement, http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/congressional_favorability_ratings

7 – Bobby Jindal, The Conservative Case for Reform, Monday, October 5, 2009, Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/04/AR2009100402003.html

Kay Bailey Hutchison calls for more ‘enlightened’ leadership in Texas

Kay Bailey Hutchison called Friday for more “enlightened” leadership in state government, arguing that statements from rival Rick Perry on subjects such as secession hurt both Texas and the Republican Party.

“While I do think I can do more in Texas to govern better, I also want to build a Republican majority,” she told a group of civic and business leaders in Dallas called the Friday Group. “It is in all of our best interest that we have a Republican Party that’s worthy of governing in Texas and also having the message go out to Americans that the biggest state that is still reliably Republican is a state that has enlightened Republicans in leadership.”

Here in Texas the battle for the soul and future of the Republican Party is being fought in the fierce contest between Kay Bailey Hutchison and incumbent Rick Perry. Being one of the busy foot-troops (taking away some time to write) for the Kay campaign, I think it would be good to put some things here into perspective about why she may hold the key to the future of the Republican Party and why I am supporting her. Obviously with Texas being the bastion of conservative republicanism, it’s a pretty tough place for a centrist republican like me. Compared to many republican peers of mine who make up the rank and file of the party, I am not a conservative, socially or economically. Now this is plain heresy here in Texas and even in the campus college GOP organization, there are those who view me with the same disdain as they have of anyone who does not agree with their ideas regardless of party identification or even arguments as to why my views are more in line with Real Republicanism. Read more »

You owe $38,523.22 as of this morning as part of America’s national debt.

Not happy? Write to the president, write to Congress and be sure to ask hard questions of candidates in upcoming elections.

Please DO NOT be partisan. There are no clean hands by either of the major parties. Write your letter as an American.

$38,523.22 is your share of the national debt. Your spouse owes that much. Your children owe that much.

Every American currently owes $38,523.22.

Taking non-working Americans out of the calculation (children, ill, retired, non-working spouses, etc.) and every working American owes $75,000.

Where did this debt come from? Years of buy now, pay later.

You and I will pay $425 billion just in interest on the debt this year.

Want or need social security? Cheap subsized pharma? Wars? Subsidized health insurance? Can you say corporate welfarism as well as welfare cadillac? We can have that if we buy now and pay later.

Our debt comes from a buy now and pay later mentality. An addiction.

So how much trouble are we really in? China wants to know if we can pay our loans back due to what it calls economic mismanagement. Tough words coming a Communist.

Sources:

– President Bush’s FY 2008 Budget, http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2008/pdf/budget/outlook.pdf

– U.S. National Debt Clock, http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/

– U.S. Public Debt, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_public_debt

– MOUNTAIN OF DEBT: Rising Debt May Be Next Crisis, http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=7995188

– Wen Voices Concern Over China’s U.S. Treasurys , http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123692233477317069.html

– Citizens for Tax Justice (CTJ), http://www.ctj.org/

– DefeatTheDebt.com, http://defeatthedebt.com/understanding-the-national-debt/how-much-do-we-owe/

The chart is taken from President Bush’s FY2008 Budget and I added the names of the presidents according to their timeline oversight of the budget and national debt.

As Republicans move closer to 2010 there are some things that they must keep in mind as the GOP appeals for support from both Republican voters and the general public:

Republican voters are not monolithic, and can be quite contrarian. While the right tends to make a lot of noise, support for President Obama dropped the most among Republican moderates and liberals (-22%) between June and July 2009. Support among conservatives dropped -12%. (4)

Without any majority appeal to voter groups other than white Americans over the age of 40, a troubling indicator for the GOP is “income”. White Americans with income above $75,000 actually increased their support for President Obama between June and July 2009 (+2%), whereas support dropped 10% among those earning less than $75,000. (4)

With exception to AK, GA, ID, LA, MS, OK, UT, and WY, young voters since 2004 have strongly or overwhelmingly (70%+) voted Democratic. There is a virtual tie among young voter loyalties in AR and WV. (3) Historically, young voters tend to stay with the same party if they vote two or more times in a row for that party. Without a major shift in demographics towards the GOP, even should the Republicans pull an upset win within the next 4-6 years it may be a short-lived victory once younger voters enter their 30s and 40s — at which time voters become more likely to vote.

Within Republican-controlled red states, but not Democratic blue states (1):

• Income tends to be a predictor of how important issues are. The higher a voter’s income the more important specific issues are to the voter.
• Lower income voters are less likely to lean heavily one way or the other on issues other than economic.
• Issues become more important the more often a person attends church.

Media concentration within these four major markets — New York, Maryland, Virginia, and California — results in issue discussion saturation which tends to negate the relationship between income and issues; translation: appeals to voters must be broad-based across the income spectrum. It is impossible for someone living in these regions not to be constantly exposed to an issue’s pros and cons. (1) Due to their size, these four states contain a major portion of electoral votes and are must win battlegrounds.

Black middle-class urban voters focus heavily on social issues regardless of income or age, whereas white voters tend to vote on economic issues. GOP focus on primarily economic issues does not have traction with the black urban middle class. (2)

Sources:

1 – How Republican and Democratic Voters Differ, Apr 2009, http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/04/20/how_republican_and_democratic_voters_differ/

2 – Day, S. D. , 2004-04-15 “Urban Black Voters v. Black Middle Class Voters: Is a Second Realignment Possible to the Republican Party”, http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p_mla_apa_research_citation/0/8/2/4/6/p82462_index.html

3 – U.S. Election Atlas, http://www.uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=100143.0

4 – Pew Research Center, 2009, http://people-press.org/report/?pageid=1559