Category: Candidates
We’re All Out of Mavericks, Would You Accept a Chameleon?
chrisladd | February 3, 2010 | 10:37 pm | Candidates | 3 Comments

In the wake of Scott Brown’s big Senate win in Massachusetts, attention is shifting to other races around the country where the GOP could potentially pick up new seats.  In Illinois Tuesday, Republicans chose Mark Kirk as their nominee for the Senate seat that was Barack Obama’s springboard to the White House.  He stands a good chance of retaking that seat for the Republicans, but that road won’t be easy.

At a gut level we tend to like politicians with an independent streak.  Guys like Teddy Roosevelt, Ronald Reagan, and John McCain didn’t become household names by carefully calibrating public opinion before deciding what to think.  Though in principle our representatives are supposed to represent us, that elusive quality of leadership is what makes one political figure stand out from the crowd.

With the fundamentalist wave in the GOP sliding into its paranoid phase; aggressively purging dissidents and enforcing a paranoid uniformity of thought, the Party is struggling to find leadership personalities with the stones to buck the trend, and a rational vision to bring us all together.  Mark Kirk offers a lot of benefits to the Party.  He could add to the GOP’s nascent resurgence in the North and demonstrate how we can win in urban areas.  Kirk could also add some ideological diversity to the Party.  But he is not going to be our new Maverick.

Mark Kirk certainly defies labels.  He is a Republican House member from an urban, Democratic-leaning district on Chicago’s North Shore.  His military resume includes service with Naval Intelligence in Haiti and Kosovo.  He recently completed a tour on active duty in Afghanistan while serving in Congress.

He was raised in the wealthy Chicago suburb of Kenilworth and went on to study at Cornell, the London School of Economics, and the National University in Mexico City.  He received a law degree from Georgetown.

He’s not dumb.

Kirk is deeply unpopular with the fundamentalist wing of the Republican Party in large part because of his strong pro-choice commitment.  He has angered the right wing of the Party on numerous other issues, but rather than make a solid case and stick with it, he consistently apologizes, equivocates, and hedges on those points.  He even made a pathetic effort to get Sarah Palin to endorse him, a surreal move since there is no way she would do it (she did not), and it would be unlikely to help him at all in Illinois.

In short, Kirk hasn’t decided where he is going to stand.  In the charged environment of the current GOP civil war, this is a dangerous problem.

He supported the House’s legislation on Cap and Trade, but in his Senate campaign he has repudiated that vote.  His explanation, given in an interview to an Illinois Tea Party organization, is bizarre.  He claims that the House bill was “good for his district,” but in representing the state as a whole he would oppose it.  Why?  Because Cap and Trade is bad for Illinois.  It’s not clear to me how the North Shore is more vulnerable to global warming than the rest of the state.  That answer has the odor of political cynicism.  Kirk is engaging in this type of awkward pandering on issues all the way up and down the Party platform.

The climate is right for a Republican to win the  Senate seat in Illinois.  To pull this off, Kirk will have to finally carve out an authentic identity.  Unless he finds one soon, he is likely to be torn to pieces between the rambunctious far-right and a determined Democratic opponent.  A win in Illinois would be a fine prize for the Party.  Let’s hope that in coming days we see more of Mark Kirk the independent-thinking Maverick and less of the waffling, equivocating Chameleon.


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Republican Future – Maybe a 2010 litmus test is the right idea.
William Golden | November 25, 2009 | 11:15 am | 2012, Candidates | 1 Comment

Some conservatives have proposed a Ten Commandments-style litmus test for those wanting to be 2010 candidates under the Republican banner.

Why? Why not! Read more »


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Did Newt Neuter Himself?
William Golden | November 5, 2009 | 4:19 pm | Candidates | 1 Comment

Newt Gingrich is held in less esteem than Sarah Palin. Among voters in general, and among Republicans.

His involvement in NY-23 was principled — he supported the primacy of the New York Republican party to pick its own candidates — but … Sarah Palin is now held in higher regard.

Per the most recent Gallup Poll, 33% of Americans would “seriously consider supporting” Sarah Palin for president. Only 29% would support Newt.

Within Republicana, Palin again beats Newt 65% to 60%.

Gallup found that Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney hold the edge, although their lead is so small as to be inconsequential.

Source: http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2009-11-05-gop-poll_N.htm#table


This blog by Bill Golden, Bill4DogCatcher.com, an independent fed up with party politics but friendly to the concept of smaller government, maximum personal freedoms, Main Street over Wall Street, fiscal responsibility and community first.


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Want a third political party? 46% of Americans say they do.
William Golden | November 1, 2009 | 10:27 am | 2012, Candidates, Democratic Party, Polls | No comments

Want a third party? Lots of talk making the rounds about forming a third party.

You may even see some news stories saying half of all Americans want a 3rd political party. See page 13 of a recent NBC/WSJ poll that says 46% want a 3rd party (1).

Wanting is different that WANTING. It is no small task to start a third political party. The odds are also stacked against you being successful because you actually have to win elections or receive a huge number of votes before you become a full participant in the political process. Example: Ross Perot was able to participate in the 1992 presidential debates but was disqualified in 1996’s debates due to many factors that place special challenges in the path of third party success (2).

This question about wanting a third party has historically gotten a 45-51% support response. And “strongly” wants has always averaged 30%.

My Prediction

Republicans will run alternative candidates on as many “existing” third party tickets as possible in 2010, mostly against moderate Republicans. End result: Either a split vote leaving moderate Republicans losers or just the threat of a third party run scares off moderate Republicans that don’t have a firm storyline about what they believe and a strong relationship with their constituents. Third party end runs will only work in the South and the eastern seaboard.

Sources:

1 - http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/091027_NBCPoll.pdf

2 – In Ross Perot’s case, despite having got 18% of the presidential election vote in 1992, America’s Commission on Presidential Debates placed many hurdles in his path in 1996:Â he needed ballot status in all 50 states, his standing in the polls needed to reach a certain percentage, attendance levels at his rallies indicating he was a viable candidate with real supporters, a consideration of the likelihood that he will ever be president, and the opinions of a host of pundits on the value of his presence on the political scene (if he is just a spoiler then inclusion would be free publicity for a non-serious candidate).


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Scozzafava Drops Out
Dennis Sanders | October 31, 2009 | 10:53 am | Candidates, headline | 5 Comments

It seems like the far right has got it’s wish:

Republican Dede Scozzafava has suspended her bid in next Tuesday’s NY 23 special election, a huge development that dramatically shakes up the race. She did not endorse either of her two opponents — Conservative party candidate Doug Hoffman or Democrat Bill Owens.

The decision to suspend her campaign is a boost for Hoffman, who already had the support of 50 percent of GOP voters, according to a newly-released Siena poll, and is now well-positioned to win over the 25 percent of Republicans who had been sticking with Scozzafava.

I guess the message from all this is pretty simple: if one deviates one bit from the current Republican “script” they are a RINO and must be driven out. Only the “pure” can be accepted.

The sad thing is that Hoffman doesn’t even know or care about issues affecting the district he is supposed represent should he win. Scozzafava knew her district,but because of her so-called liberal stances on gay marriage and abortion she is being drummed out of the party.

How Scozzafava was treated makes me wonder how long I will keep the moniker of Republican. I consider myself a pragmatic conservative and will remain one. But I am increasingly finding it hard to stay in a party that does not want me even though I agree with them on more issues than I disagree with them.

The party is headed towards destruction. I don’t know if I want to be there for the end.


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Hoffman-a know nothing
Martin Rybicki | October 28, 2009 | 8:35 am | 2012, Candidates | No comments

Undoubtedly this raises good questions on his ability to actually represent the district he’s running for. Shouldn’t he know something about them?

Hoffman silent on local issues

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 25, 2009

Douglas L. Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate for the 23rd Congressional District seat, offered no position on a few key local issues during a Thursday meeting with the Watertown Daily Times editorial board.


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About Doug Hoffman’s Lead
Dennis Sanders | October 27, 2009 | 9:46 pm | Candidates, Polls | 1 Comment

Two polls have suggested that Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman is in the lead in the race for the 23rd Congressional District in the State of New York.

The first poll released yesterday, comes out this way: Hoffman with 31.3%, Democrat Bill Owens with 27.0%, and Republican Dede Scozzafava with 19.7%. Twenty-two percent are undecided.

The second poll released today has Hoffman again in the lead with Hoffman at 34 percent, Owens with 29, Scozzafava with 14 and 23 percent undecided.

Both polls have Scozzafava in third place and it looks like her campaign in collasping while Hoffman is surging.

While Scozzafava might indeed not be doing as well, one would need to take both polls with a grain of salt. Read more »


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Jim Ramstad Is NOT Running for Minnesota Governor. Maybe.
Dennis Sanders | October 9, 2009 | 10:37 pm | Candidates, asides, blogs | No comments

Former Republican Congressman Jim Ramstad stated today that he has no intent to run for governor of Minnesota in 2010. He said he has not set up an exploratory committee. He says that he going to give space for another moderate Republican to run.

And that would be?

Let’s face it: Ramstad is one of the few moderates left in the state GOP. And as the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports the current crop of candidates only please the rabid base of the party and will do nothing to reach out to independents and moderates.

I hope that Ramstad would consider running. I’ve even considered setting up a “draft Jim Ramstad” page just to get the discussion started. I think we need his grown-up, old school conservative beliefs.


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More on Castle
Guest Author | October 9, 2009 | 10:11 pm | Candidates, asides, blogs | No comments

From the Republican Leadership Council:

US Rep. Michael N. Castle, R-Del., says he’ll run for the Delaware US Senate seat formerly held by Joe Biden, now Vice President.

Castle, 70, stood in a Wilmington park across from the Amtrak station from where he’s commuted to the House since 1993, and told allies from Delaware’s shrunken Republican party he’ll stand for Senate in next year’s election. “I cleared it with the most important person out there,” he said, pressing wife Jane Castle’s arm. “We came to a decision a little more than a week ago,” on Sun. Sept. 27. Jane took convincing. “I wanted to do it all along.”

Instead of attacking Democrats, Castle sounded his frequent note of moderation, stressing the need to boost employment at home and for effective diplomacy broad, and adding, “Health care is an issue begging” both parties “to work together… I happen to believe in civility and bipartisanship… A long time ago we discovered in Delaware that if we work together we can solve problems.” His only tilt at the Democrats: “Spending in Washington has just gone too far.”

Castle is expected to run against Biden’s son Beau, now Delaware’s Democratic Attorney General. The seat is currently occupied by Ted Kaufman, a Biden aide who isn’t expected to run. “I have a lot of respect for Joe Biden,” and “his family,” Castle said. “I don’t know Beau as well, but obviously I respect him too. My point is, in Delaware, we can have the kind of campaign we can be proud of.

“But I don’ t have any illusions this will be easy. This will be a very difficult election. That’s what elections should be all about.”

Castle represents a precious chance for Republicans to take back a Democratic Senate seat and break their 60-vote filibuster majority, said former state GOP chair Basil Battaglia. He expects former State Sen. Charles Copeland, among others, to try to keep Carper’s House seat Republican. Democrats include former Lt. Gov. John Carney, the party’s candidate for governor last year, left jobless in last year’s primary election by onetime Comcast executive Jack Markell’s superior organization and out-of-state money.


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We Eat Our Own
Dennis Sanders | October 9, 2009 | 10:06 pm | Candidates | 3 Comments

Republicans have a nasty habit of shooting themselves in the foot. Over the last few years, we have become a party so obsessed with “principles” that we have allowed the party to shrink in size and in influence.

The latest case is the furor surround Dede Scozzafava, a Republican Assemblywoman in New York State who is running to fill the seat vacated by Republican John McHugh, who was tapped to become President Obama’s Secretary of the Army. Read more »


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The War Against Dede
Dennis Sanders | October 8, 2009 | 9:53 pm | Candidates, Republican Party | No comments

Politico is running a story about how some groups on the hard right are upset at National Republican Committee for supporting New York Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, who is running to fill the seat vacated by John McHugh. They see Scozzafava as a “liberal,” a “radical” who happens to have an “R” after her name. Read more »


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Charlie Bass to Run Again for Congress
Dennis Sanders | October 2, 2009 | 11:38 am | Candidates, asides, blogs | No comments

From Real Republican Majority:

Today former Congressman Charlie Bass filed to form an exploratory committee for a 2010 run for his old U.S. House seat—New Hampshire’s Second District. Congressman Bass got swept up in the anti-incumbent, anti-Republican wave in 2006. Now the seat is vacant and it appears he is strongly considering a run. He still seems to be being coy about it; saying that the committee is merely a mechanism to deal with the countless unsolicited donations he has received. Hopefully he will bite the bullet and jump in. New Hampshire needs a representative like Bass back in its corner.

As a state and federal elected official Bass gained the reputation for working for real solutions instead being a party sheep dog. We look for to this Real Republican running for the U.S. House and helping turn some blue seats red—especially in New England.

Wikipedia notes that Bass has been a member of several moderate/centrist GOP groups:

Bass is a member of Christine Todd Whitman’s Its My Party Too, The Republican Majority For Choice, Republicans For Choice and Republicans For Environmental Protection, as well as President and CEO of The Republican Main Street Partnership Bass now heads a coalition of centrist Republicans.


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An Enlightened Republicanism

Kay Bailey Hutchison calls for more ‘enlightened’ leadership in Texas

Kay Bailey Hutchison called Friday for more “enlightened” leadership in state government, arguing that statements from rival Rick Perry on subjects such as secession hurt both Texas and the Republican Party.

“While I do think I can do more in Texas to govern better, I also want to build a Republican majority,” she told a group of civic and business leaders in Dallas called the Friday Group. “It is in all of our best interest that we have a Republican Party that’s worthy of governing in Texas and also having the message go out to Americans that the biggest state that is still reliably Republican is a state that has enlightened Republicans in leadership.”

Here in Texas the battle for the soul and future of the Republican Party is being fought in the fierce contest between Kay Bailey Hutchison and incumbent Rick Perry. Being one of the busy foot-troops (taking away some time to write) for the Kay campaign, I think it would be good to put some things here into perspective about why she may hold the key to the future of the Republican Party and why I am supporting her. Obviously with Texas being the bastion of conservative republicanism, it’s a pretty tough place for a centrist republican like me. Compared to many republican peers of mine who make up the rank and file of the party, I am not a conservative, socially or economically. Now this is plain heresy here in Texas and even in the campus college GOP organization, there are those who view me with the same disdain as they have of anyone who does not agree with their ideas regardless of party identification or even arguments as to why my views are more in line with Real Republicanism. Read more »


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RINO Hunts Continue
Martin Rybicki | September 24, 2009 | 11:11 pm | Candidates, News, around the web, headline | 2 Comments

GOP Congressman Targeted By ‘RINO’ Hunters

September 23, 2009By any measure, Republican Rep. Bob Inglis of South Carolina is a solid conservative. In the 1990s, he was a vehement opponent of President Clinton. Last year, he got an “A” from the National Rifle Association, and an 84 percent approval rating from the American Conservative Union. His votes to cut budgets, leave markets unregulated and restrict abortions put him among the most conservative of his party.

But things are different these days. In the past three years, the Republican Party has lost control of the House, the Senate and the White House. The result is a shrunken, somewhat disoriented GOP, one that is on a search for its soul. And Inglis’ district in South Carolina is a kind of microcosm of this. It’s where the congressman is already facing stiff opposition in the 2010 Republican primary, from four challengers who say he isn’t conservative enough.

Here we go again, more news about RINO’s and how the far-right is trying to keep the party as small as possible in order to keep ideological purity. Except, this is weird, this person in South Carolina is not at all a RINO using the conventional view of the term in that it represents moderate and liberal republicans. This is someone who is in every way conservative, a record that would make a centrist like me view him as too conservative. So what makes him a supposed RINO? He voted in favor of repimanding Joe Wilson’s now infamous “You Lie!” outburst. Somehow his pursuit to keep a sense of civility within congress has landed him in the political hitlist of conservatives within our party. So the hunts in some parts of the nation continue, although politically some of these instances may be advantageous to our cause if in the next election cycle in 2010 those areas that have purged moderates and even respectable conservatives from their ranks in favor of “tea party” and religious right conservatives end up losing their battles in the general elections to Democrats while areas that have put forth centrists actually win against democratic opponents. Ideas on political strategy is something I will expound upon in another article.

But just think, what is generally considered a hardcore conservative is being pushed out just because he viewed civility within Congress as something he would stand for. Amazing and scary at the same time. We as a centrist organization are at risk of these people and organizations such as the Club for Growth, as well as candidates that start to even get near to our positions and hopes for the future of the GOP. What needs to happen are ideas and plans to counter these groups and push back. Here on this site, we must offer those ideas.


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Voter Factoids – The Republican 2010/2012 Challenge, Part I

As Republicans move closer to 2010 there are some things that they must keep in mind as the GOP appeals for support from both Republican voters and the general public:

Republican voters are not monolithic, and can be quite contrarian. While the right tends to make a lot of noise, support for President Obama dropped the most among Republican moderates and liberals (-22%) between June and July 2009. Support among conservatives dropped -12%. (4)

Without any majority appeal to voter groups other than white Americans over the age of 40, a troubling indicator for the GOP is “income”. White Americans with income above $75,000 actually increased their support for President Obama between June and July 2009 (+2%), whereas support dropped 10% among those earning less than $75,000. (4)

With exception to AK, GA, ID, LA, MS, OK, UT, and WY, young voters since 2004 have strongly or overwhelmingly (70%+) voted Democratic. There is a virtual tie among young voter loyalties in AR and WV. (3) Historically, young voters tend to stay with the same party if they vote two or more times in a row for that party. Without a major shift in demographics towards the GOP, even should the Republicans pull an upset win within the next 4-6 years it may be a short-lived victory once younger voters enter their 30s and 40s — at which time voters become more likely to vote.

Within Republican-controlled red states, but not Democratic blue states (1):

  • Income tends to be a predictor of how important issues are. The higher a voter’s income the more important specific issues are to the voter.
  • Lower income voters are less likely to lean heavily one way or the other on issues other than economic.
  • Issues become more important the more often a person attends church.

Media concentration within these four major markets — New York, Maryland, Virginia, and California — results in issue discussion saturation which tends to negate the relationship between income and issues; translation: appeals to voters must be broad-based across the income spectrum. It is impossible for someone living in these regions not to be constantly exposed to an issue’s pros and cons. (1) Due to their size, these four states contain a major portion of electoral votes and are must win battlegrounds.

Black middle-class urban voters focus heavily on social issues regardless of income or age, whereas white voters tend to vote on economic issues. GOP focus on primarily economic issues does not have traction with the black urban middle class. (2)

Sources:

1 – How Republican and Democratic Voters Differ, Apr 2009, http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/04/20/how_republican_and_democratic_voters_differ/

2 – Day, S. D. , 2004-04-15 “Urban Black Voters v. Black Middle Class Voters: Is a Second Realignment Possible to the Republican Party”, http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p_mla_apa_research_citation/0/8/2/4/6/p82462_index.html

3 – U.S. Election Atlas, http://www.uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=100143.0

4 – Pew Research Center, 2009, http://people-press.org/report/?pageid=1559


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